The Ninety Bite Diet

Disclaimer: You should consult your doctor before beginning this – or any other – diet and exercise plan.

Let me get this out of the way right off the bat. I'm going to tell you how this works. I know it works because I lost 70 pounds in 7 months. I started this diet in January of 2005. As I write this it is November of 2006. Twenty-two months have passed and I continue to maintain my weight +/- 10 pounds doing what I describe here. I recently read about a survey which indicated that if you keep the weight off for two years or more you increase your chances of keeping it off by 60%!

When I describe this diet to people their first reaction is to find a way to cheat. They say, "But what if I..." Look, it's okay with me. I've lost the weight and I keep it off. If you alter the format and your results are less then optimal, it's okay with me - I'm not grading you on this. By the same token, if you alter the diet and get better results, let me know - I'd be happy to include your findings! :)

Mindset:

For this diet (or any other for that matter) to work you need to wrap your head around it. Here, for example, was my mindset:

1. By November 2004 I was 243 lbs and a 44 waist. I knew I had to do something.

2. I first decided that I wouldn't torture myself. I'd wait till January 3rd of the New Year to begin whatever it was I was going to do.

3. I also knew that a "fad" diet (you know, the South Beach Diet, Jenny Craig, etc.) wasn't going to work for me. I didn't have the time or inclination for measuring and so forth.

4. I also knew that whatever I decided to do would have to be something I was willing to do everyday. Men especially tend to be goal setters - and achievers. So, we see weight loss as a goal unto itself. Once accomplished, we can return to our old ways (after all, we did achieve our goal). No, I knew that I needed a lifestyle type alteration.

5. I set a realistic Goal: Lose 60 lbs in 1 year.

Food Knowledge:

Here's a sampling of what to eat and - more importantly - what to stay away from:

Good Foods Contain...

1. Proteins - i.e. chicken breast, steak, eggs
2. Complex Carbs - i.e. fruits and vegetables
3. Nuts - for men in particular - walnuts and almonds. Handful is 5 bites for me. Good mid-afternoon snack.
4. Beverages - water or seltzer - two liters per day. Coffee with cream is okay. If you must have sugar substitute sweet and low for sugar; black is probably easiest.
5. Salad (of course). Focus on "meaty" veggies - i.e. carrots, celery. I find that things with a lot of crunch are helpful mentally/physically so that you think you ate something really filling. I also find that adding two hard-boiled eggs is the kicker for a full lunch that'll carry you through to your next meal.

Okay Foods Contain...

1. Whole Grains - i.e. whole grain bread
2. Some fats - i.e. bacon
3. Condiments - in very limited portions. Mustard is better then ketchup; vinaigrettes are better then ranch dressings. Avoid duck sauce and soy sauce.
4. Spices are good except for salt.
5. Honey - i.e. drizzled on whole grain toast.
6. Butter - in moderation.

Good Once in a while...

1. High protein/Low carb bar - Advent, Met-Rx - small bites (I can get 12-15 out of a large bar). Good breakfast/lunch alternative.

2. Deli Style Slim Jims (I know you think I'm crazy but...). They're 10 bites and, in a pinch, they'll take away the hunger if you're running late to dinner.

Bad Foods Contain white stuff...

1. White (processed) flour - i.e. white bread, cakes
2. White sugar - i.e. cakes, pies, desserts in general, candy
3. Salt
4. Margarine - no man made concoctions! Use butter instead!

Vitamin and exercise knowledge:

From experience I learned that after 40, your metabolism takes a nosedive. And, it seems, we're saturated with information that tells us that we are more susceptible to this and that. With that in mind, here's what I take/do:

1. Everyday vitamins: a multi-vitamin, 1500 mg vitamin C (I increase this by 500 mg at the first hint of a cold) and a baby aspirin.

2. Exercise. Look, here's what I've learned...you've gotta sweat 30 minutes a day 3 days a week (4 is even better). That doesn't mean taking a sauna. It means getting your heart pumping. My preference is running but that's not the only option. There are rowing machines, ellipticals, swimming, etc. You can stick with one - as I tend to do - or mix it up. The only point is - Do It! Altering your eating habits alone is not enough!

Now, to the crux of it: The 90 Bite Diet...

So, the first key is to focus on foods from the Good and Okay groups and refrain from Bad foods.

Start of the day:

1. Get a pad that you can carry around. Keep a running record of your day-to-day progress.

2. First thing in the morning, weigh yourself. Write your weight at the top of the page. This is huge (no pun intended)! It will let you see your progress and, when you slide back on a day, you'll know what you did differently the day before and won't repeat it.

Along those lines, there have been times I've attended a party or indulged for whatever reason. I make a note of that under my weight the next morning so that I have a record of what impacted my progress.

3. Under that write E= on the left corner and V= on the right side of the line. When you Exercise put a check mark next to E=. Similarly, when you take your vitamins, put a check mark next to V=.

4. Underneath that, write 90. Now, at this point, every bite counts. Cramming your mouth with as much food as possible and saying that's a bite is not a bite.

Look, here's a good rule of thumb. When you bite your food, make believe that you're out to dinner with the girl you want to marry. How would you eat in front of her (be honest with yourself!)?
[For you married guys, make believe it was the girl that you were trying to impress who became your wife.] :)

5. As you eat, count the bites and subtract it from 90. When you get to zero, you're out of bites! Tomorrow begins another day.

Do's & Don'ts:

1. Do sit down and eat without distractions. This forces you to be "conscious" of what you're putting in your mouth. You will find yourself eating slower since you’re not in a rush and not distracted.

2. Do eat at consistent times everyday. We are creatures of habit. Whatever your meal times are, stick to them. Otherwise, by the time you eat, you're so hungry that you eat whatever is in sight and you eat too much of it.

3. Do experiment a little. For instance, I learned that I am quite satisfied with a 3 egg omelet (18 bites for me) and I can go right to lunchtime without feeling at all hungry. By comparison, if I have two slices of whole grain toast with butter and honey (12 bites for me), I need a piece of fruit by mid morning (average banana = 10 bites for me).

4. Do try to have three meals with two snacks - to the best of your ability.

5. Don't eat and go right to bed.

6. Don't drink alcohol and beer (high carbs) at least until you get the bulk of the weight off -- why work against yourself? And then, alcohol only in moderation or, build extra workout time in. Beverages i.e. coffee, seltzer, water - don't count toward your bites.

7. To the best of your ability...Don't combine carbs with proteins. If you're having an omelet, avoid having it on a roll or with bread.

8. Do combine proteins - i.e. ham or bacon with eggs.

9. Do take small bites and stretch out your mealtime.

You may notice that I don't concern myself too much with fats but I'm radical about sugars (bad carbs). My experience is that I burn the fat - thanks to exercise - so I don't have to worry about it as much; I just try not to go "hog" wild with them.

Cheats.

Everybody needs a cheat. Here are three that I use:

1. Sugar free Jell-O Gelatin - no carbs! One a day for a snack and I don't count it against my bites.

2. Sugar free Jell-O Pudding (not the no fat type, the no sugar type!) Once in a while - it does count against my bites (8 bites for me).

3. Low carb (3g) Fit and Lively yogurt shakes. One a day - sip it - doesn't count toward bites. Good mid-afternoon snack.

[Obviously you can have ONE of these each day - not all three every day!]

Finally, let's talk about sweets. Personally, my downfalls are cookies and desserts. Believe me, nothing (and I mean No Thing) has been able to stop my voracious appetite for these things. For you it could be beer or potato chips or cheetos or whatever. In most cases though, the nemesis seems to be simple carbs - sugars and refined flour based products. So, what are we to do?

First, as I wrote earlier, exercise! If your routine is running 3 days a week, 40 minutes per run (as mine is), then throw in an extra day when you find yourself indulging.

Also important -- smaller bites and sips! For instance, chocolate chip or Oreo cookies...I'm a freak for these things. I used to eat one cookie in one bite; now I get 4 bites out of one. After a few weeks of doing the bite diet without any cookies, I realized that bites are valuable - especially when you have 90 a day. So, I don't want to waste them on sweets. Two cookies are 8 bites. That gave me a taste without wrecking my day.

Sam Adams. Sammy and I are great buds. (Have you seen this guy's picture? He looks pretty fit!) But, rather then the usual three - no problem - for me, I've got to make one last. The key is sipping instead of gulping.

Another thing: after the first couple of months of practicing this diet I realized that there were certain foods that I ate repeatedly and that I knew the bite count automatically. Here’s the thing – don’t stop counting the bites even if you know the bite count!

Here’s why (and a big secret of this diet’s success): first, what constitutes a bite for you may be different then what my bite is.
Also, counting your bites actually helps you to slow down. You become a “conscious” eater. Since you are not distracted by outside factors – conference calls, driving, etc – you see how and what you eat. Now that you’re forced to take a hard look at yourself your tendency is to do the right thing – i.e. not gobbling down your meal in a minute. Memorizing the bites and automatically deducting them only allows you to maintain unhealthy eating habits.

Here’s a personal example: I know that a hard boiled egg is 6 bites but when I’m not paying attention, I tend to eat it in 4 bites. That means I’m taking larger bites and rushing my meal. End result – I’m looking for food before my next scheduled mealtime. Totally self-defeating!

I know that starting and maintaining a diet and exercise plan is a very personal thing. It can be embarrassing and intimidating. Here’s what I did to deal with that: I told people! Initially, when people heard what diet plan I was following, they laughed at me! They (beginning with my family) thought I was ridiculous! But believe it or not, that bit of loving ridicule actually helped me in my resolve to succeed. And guess what...after the first 40 pounds, they stopped laughing.

Life itself also makes it very difficult. To begin with your schedule is already pretty full so stopping to focus on eating and exercise means juggling your responsibilities. Plus, eating is not something you can just stop doing – like smoking or drinking alcohol. But, if you make the resolve, you will succeed.

Success also means developing new habits (or relearning old ones). Here I can help a bit. When I want to develop a new habit I set a goal of practicing it for ninety days (Wow! Ninety bites...ninety days? Hmmmm...) It’s up to me to be aware and stop myself whenever I make a mistake. By the end of ninety days I’m pretty much on my way to success.

Wishing you the best of luck, Bill Mazzacca

Adding Value to Your Mix

In a soon to be written article I will explain to you some of the various investing styles but for now (and in the interest of full disclosure) I will tell you that I am a value investor.

We all like sales and value investing is all about buying stocks on sale. In short, I look for stocks where I can buy a dollar's worth of value for 66 cents. But, finding these stocks does take a bit of time and energy; precious commodities when you're working long days. But, fear not, there is an index fund that follows this very strategy and it is available to you - the Russell 1000 Value Index...

As the name implies, this fund is comprised of 1000 large cap stocks. In their top 5 categories are stocks covering financial services, utilities, consumer discretionary and staples.

This index carries a P/E of 14.4 - giving you an earnings yield of 6.95%. That makes the P/E below the historic mean and well below the Dow Jones Industrials (P/E = 23.89). These stocks are on sale!

But, a word of caution. As I've written previously, by all measures that I follow, the market is at a pretty lofty level. I've taken - and recommend - a hold approach. So, if you're in this fund currently, stay put but, if you're not in the fund you may want to stay put until a correction occurs. At that point, I'd take a serious look at this index as part of your portfolio.

The P/E Ratio - Part II

Last time I focused on the mechanics of the P/E ratio. This time, I look at some of the conclusions you can draw from the P/E.

What would you say is more desirable, paying $10 for each dollar of earnings or paying $20 for the same earnings dollar? If you answered $10, you understand the first implication of the P/E. A P/E of 10 indicates that you'll be paying $10 for each dollar of company earnings. Based on historical trends (more on that in a moment) that's pretty good.

Let's look at this another way. Are you willing to wait 20 years for the company to obtain - in earnings - what you paid for the stock? That's right. If you have a stock with a P/E of 20 you are, in effect, investing in a company that will take 20 years to earn what you invested in the stock. So, you might ask yourself, does this business have what it takes to make consistent - or better - earnings over 20 years? Let's reframe that a bit. Do you know of any business or economic cycle that has lasted 20 years without suffering the ill effects of recessions, business slumps, or the like?

In two broad brush strokes you now know what the P/E tells you about a stock, stock mutual fund, or ETF. But, the true power of the P/E comes from understanding its historical value.

In his book, "Unexpected Returns", Ed Easterling delves into the past performance of P/E ratios. Here are some of his findings...

1. Over the past century the average P/E has been 15.8
2. The P/E has a natural peak in the mid-twenties
3. At the start of - and during - a bull market, P/Es are low and rising
4. At the start of - and during - a bear market, P/Es are high and declining
5. Moves toward either inflation or deflation results in lower P/Es.

I'm writing this after market close on 11/13. The P/E for the Dow Jones Industrials is 23.52 and the S&P 500 Index is 18.54.How about indexes that may be available through your retirement fund:

Russell 1000 Index	17.1
Russell 1000 Growth Index	20.7
Russell 2000 Index	20.3

Five out of five indexes are above the historic average and three are beginning to approach a peak!

"But," you say, "What about stocks like Google (goog)? They sport a P/E of 68 and appear to be making money!" Yes dear reader, there is some truth to that. Still, how much money have they really made? Since October of 2005 that stock has been moving in a band between $350 and $450. In fact, here's something else the P/E suggests...

Stocks and funds with high P/E ratios are priced for optimal performance! One mistake, one earnings hiccup, and investors will dump that stock in a heartbeat.

High P/E's can make money for traders - not investors. What's the difference? Traders think in terms of days and weeks. Investors think in terms of months and years. To think like a trader, to profit like a trader requires time - lot's of time. Time to analyze various stocks, time to look at charts. Time to watch the market throughout the day for any of those hiccups I mention which may cause a change in course. At that point, the trader needs to be nimble enough to get out of the market in a hurry before he's stampeded by others headed for the exit.

For the most part, we're investors. We think longer term. We look at weekly charts. We appreciate buy low, sell high. And, to do that, we will look for - among other criteria - low P/E stocks and funds.

The P/E ratio is one of the more prominent tools in my investing toolbox. Investment philosophies have been built around the P/E and with good reason. In articles to come you'll learn about other tools I have in my toolbox and how I use them too.

Next Time In the Fund Informer...

Two weeks ago I was in Manhattan and had an interesting conversation regarding management styles with one of my colleagues. That discussion got me to thinking. So, the next issue will depart a bit from the normal format for an essay on the subject. As with everything else in these pages, I hope you find the article informative - if not instructive. Till next time...

P.S. I promised you a special bonus. As many of you know, almost two years ago I started a diet which resulted in a seventy pound weight loss. I know dieting is a very personal and frustrating topic but, I thought I'd write it down for anyone that may be interested. Just click here for The Ninety Bite Diet.

Will Your Take Home Pay Take You Home?

How does it happen? August brought us $3.00+ gasoline and endless reports that the end was near and we were nearly out of oil. Yet, here we are (October 26th as I write this) and in my unscientific survey I see gasoline below $2.00 in New Jersey and under $2.50 in New York!

Naturally, I did some digging at the Energy Information Administration website. According to their masthead, the EIA provides "Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government." They have reports of every stripe - short term forecasts, long term forecasts, home energy use. You name it, they've got it!

Now, when it comes to Government forecasts, I have a healthy sense of skepticism. So, I chose to focus on the Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook. Answers started to present themselves on page 4 of this report, "For the first 6 months of 2006, average demand was down 130,000 bbl/d, or 0.6 percent, from the previous year due to mild weather—which reduced heating oil, residual fuel oil, and propane consumption— and rapidly rising prices, which greatly affected motor gasoline and jet fuel demand growth."

But wait, there's more! On page 5 I hit pay-dirt, "On September 30, total motor gasoline inventories were estimated to be 215 million barrels, 18 million barrels above last year’s end of September levels and above the upper bound of the normal range. These inventories are expected to remain ample during the heating season."

So, are we led to believe that, after all the hyperbole, it's a simple matter of supply and demand? The chart below indicates that prices will rebound some going into the New Year with retail gas prices at approximately $2.20 per gallon (national average).

Will we ever return to the prices of yesteryear? I suppose not. Will we see a bit of price stability? Well, the road ahead looks like less of a roller-coaster ride and that, by itself, is a comfort! But don't get lulled into believing that prices will continue to stay at this level or decline further. Remember, even modest adjustments to your energy expenses will have a positive effect on your pocketbook.

Can Russell Give Us Value?

With razor thin expense ratios and less of a bias toward management agendas, Index Funds and ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) tend to be my favorite funds.


The Russell 1000 Index contains the one-thousand largest components (companies) of it's larger parent - The Russell 3000 Index. And the stocks contained within the index constitute approximately 90% of the equity traded on the U.S. Exchanges (see this info at Street Authority.com).


Where 33% of stocks in the S&P 500 Index are related to Financial Services and Healthcare, the Russell 1000 has 35% in those same sectors. Similarly, other sectors - Industrial Materials, Hardware, Consumer Goods, Consumer Services, Energy, Software, Business Services and Media - track almost identically in percentage to the S&P 500.


So, what accounts for its continual upward bias? Of course, part of the answer is size. One-thousand companies certainly provides a broad representation of the market and can obscure poor performance by some of the fund components.


Still, just as the DJIA sports a P/E of 23+ and the S&P 500 a P/E of 18+, the Russell 1000 is approximately 17.2. While better then the Dow, you w start of a start of a major bull run from a P/E of 17.2. By the same token, a rising tide raises all ships and certainly ships sporting a lower P/E will rise higher. Will the trend continue? Is this a place to be invested? Was the decline of last week a cause for concern?


Well, if you're invested in this fund, a 7.21 point decline certainly doesn't mean that you should pull your money out. However, I do tend to believe that we may be witnessing the beginning of a changing trend. So, if you are on the sidelines, you may want to stay there for a bit.

Editors Note: This article has been changed to correct some errors made in the original post. Sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused.

The P/E Ratio - Part I

Today I begin a multi-part series on the P/E - or Price-To-Earnings - ratio. This week we look at what two factors make up the P/E.

As its name suggests the P/E ratio expresses the relationship between the share price and the earnings per share. So, what are earnings? Simply, income less expenses. In fact, earnings are often called a "bottom line" number because of its appearance at the bottom of the Income Statement.

Often the Income Statement reports the earnings per share (EPS) yet, sometimes they report a total earnings number. In that case you would divide total earnings by total shares outstanding for the EPS number.

Many financial websites report EPS for the trailing - previous - twelve months (ttm). Occasionally you'll see an analyst estimate of earnings twelve months into the future - an estimated EPS. Some websites update the P/E daily to reflect the effect of the day's share price.

Let's work with an example....

Mythical Glass Co has a share price of $20.00 and earnings of $2.00 per share: 20/2 produces a P/E of 10.

Another valuable statistic (and one of my favorites) derived from the P/E ratio is Earnings Yield. In long form, the formula is E/P * 100. Returning to Mythical Glass Co - 2/20 *100 = 10%. In other words, the share price invested is producing a yield of 10%!

When you have an opportunity, go to Yahoo Finance, plug in a company stock symbol - i.e. AT&T (T) - and check out the P/E.

Coming up we'll look at historical P/E ranges and how you can use the P/E as one of your tools in making investment decisions.

Next Time In the Fund Informer...

I'll take a look at The Russell 1000 Value Index, do more exploration of the P/E ratio and, I'll have a special bonus for you as well.Is there something you'd like to see more - or less - of? Click here and let us know.

Till next time...