Well Thanksgiving is fast approaching. The recipe for most of us will include food, relaxation, football, more food and yes, plenty of dessert. With all that to look forward to who cares what is happening in the stock market? Still, I see a glimmer of an opportunity in the market which I'll touch on briefly. From there, I'll present two short essays: one on green energy, the other a Thanksgiving wish. Hope you enjoy.
A Shining Opportunity?
On October 24th I wrote about five commodity ETFs that you could capitalize on if they reversed trend. One of the five, the Spider Gold Shares ETF (GLD) appears to have begun a rally. In accordance with the normal rules, once the weekly closing price is above the 45 week MA for two consecutive weeks, we would be buyers. I will continue to monitor this and the other commodity ETFs I mentioned.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) - click image to enlarge
Green Energy: How Committed Are We?
The November 24th edition of Forbes magazine was a Special Issue titled "Energy and Genius". The sections within presented various aspects on the supply and demand of fuel and power. Initially I tossed it on my nightstand not even sure that I wanted to read it. To tell you the truth, I'm getting a little sick of energy. The subject dominates the airwaves and the bills are dominating my mailbox. In fact, if I could package the hot air generated on the subject we could all see some relief on our bottom lines. But, like a moth to a flame, I flipped the first page followed by the next eighty or so.
Some of the items were interesting. For instance, I learned that they have come up with nuclear power plants small enough to power a factory or town. And, get this, there are 3500 scientists assembled in France to build a $15 billion fusion reactor. The purpose of which is to prove whether fusion power can be harnessed and used as a viable energy source.
There are companies in Chile looking to harvest lithium from a dry lake bed. Lithium is set to become the next hot commodity since we need it to create the batteries that go into battery powered cars.
Of course, there is ethanol. Some critics assert that, in energy units, ethanol actually consumes as much fossil fuel to manufacture and transport as it replaces. New for me were references to chemicals known as designer biofuels. These are made by using bacteria to break down organic matter (compost heaps and wood chip piles). After a fermentation process the resulting mix is distilled and ethanol is obtained.
Wind is hot. Oilman and billionaire T. Boone Pickens says that the central U.S. is the Saudi Arabia of wind. Right now though cheaper gas and tighter credit are blowing that project off the map.
At least on paper (or magazine print) these things all sound like home runs. Right? Then it hit me...yeah, home runs always make the highlight reel but where are the doubles and triples that win most ballgames? Driving into the office the other morning, I gave some thought to a few doubles and triples...
For instance, why don't they integrate solar panels into the roofs and trunk lids of our cars? Although our driving habits vary somewhat, our cars spend a lot of time in daylight and parked in the sun. Wouldn't it make sense to have some solar cells charge a set of batteries that could be used to power the power locks and windows; the dash and interior lights. When the batteries deplete, your car could automatically switch over to the alternator recharge system. Hell, just replacing the interior and dash lights with LED lights would consume less energy.
How about an integrated charger shelf for my home with a solar panel that could affix to a window with suction cups. That shelf could charge my cell phone, MP3 player, PDA, etc.
Then I asked myself this question: why aren't there solar panel installation kits at Lowe's and Home Depot? Have I missed them? I mean solar panels have been around since the 70s. Wouldn't you think that there would be some sort of special plug and interconnect system installed by your electric panel? You come along and decide to add solar power. You buy a panel or two to start, snap them together, mount them on the roof, run a line and hook it up to the interconnect system. You would think that in the past thirty odd years some standards would have evolved to facilitate this. Wouldn't you?
Then my mind kicked into high gear.
I began to think about the role of our progressive government. How about encouraging home builders to incorporate alternative energy technologies into their homes? Perhaps municipalities could "fast track" building applications for those builders that incorporate a defined minimum of alternative energy products in the homes they build. How about a fast track process for patent applications that target alternative energy products?
How about tax incentives for companies that produce new alternative energy products with measurable results. And, when I say measurable I'm talking about being able to recoup the initial investment in a short period of time with a life expectancy at least five times as long as the recoup period. For instance if I'm buying solar panels, I should be able to recoup my initial investment in two years based on savings derived from reduced usage of the electric they replace. Plus, the panels should last at least 10 years.
Sadly our government is taking on a more regressive stance. This from the same Forbes issue: "A tax or cap on carbon emissions could hit residents and businesses of some states a lot harder than others. That could mean lost jobs, but it would also promote conservation and greener power sources, like nuclear."
Now, I'm not sure of how that plays out exactly. I mean since 1973 most of the 8% drop in fossil fuel use is due to nuclear energy. What does that amount to, about .23% per year over 35 years? Let's see, at that rate, Nuclear could offset the rest of our carbon fuel use in about 369 years. In the meantime, the current contraction in GDP and likely decline in federal tax receipts means that carbon tax legislation could speed through Congress like an Indy race car (I just hope it's not running on oil)!
Forbes does a great job summing up government spending on alternative energies for the past and present: "The U.S. has spent $57.5 billion over 30 years on the development of clean energy...Fossil fuel [use] has fallen from 93% in 1973 to 85% today." And this: "...federal energy R&D in 1978 hit $6 billion (today's money). Once the oil panic of the 1970s ebbed and prices fell...energy research dried up, hitting a low of $505 million in 1998." Will history repeat itself? It's a wait and see game.
Sadly our government is taking on a more regressive stance. This from the same Forbes issue: "A tax or cap on carbon emissions could hit residents and businesses of some states a lot harder than others. That could mean lost jobs, but it would also promote conservation and greener power sources, like nuclear."
Now, I'm not sure of how that plays out exactly. I mean since 1973 most of the 8% drop in fossil fuel use is due to nuclear energy. What does that amount to, about .23% per year over 35 years? Let's see, at that rate, Nuclear could offset the rest of our carbon fuel use in about 369 years. In the meantime, the current contraction in GDP and likely decline in federal tax receipts means that carbon tax legislation could speed through Congress like an Indy race car (I just hope it's not running on oil)!
Forbes does a great job summing up government spending on alternative energies for the past and present: "The U.S. has spent $57.5 billion over 30 years on the development of clean energy...Fossil fuel [use] has fallen from 93% in 1973 to 85% today." And this: "...federal energy R&D in 1978 hit $6 billion (today's money). Once the oil panic of the 1970s ebbed and prices fell...energy research dried up, hitting a low of $505 million in 1998." Will history repeat itself? It's a wait and see game.
Thanksgiving. The Holiday for All of Us.
While many of the holidays we celebrate tend to separate us into one group or another, I believe that Thanksgiving is a timeless holiday that unites all of us.
Although there are conflicting historical accounts, the common belief is that the Pilgrims celebrated the first Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving on the Net includes this: "The Pilgrim Governor William Bradford proclaimed a day of thanksgiving to be shared by all the colonists and the neighboring Native Americans. They invited Squanto and the other Indians to join them in their celebration. Their chief, Massasoit, and 90 braves came to the celebration which lasted for 3 days. They played games, ran races, marched and played drums."
What holiday could be more part of the American culture and as important today as it was in 1621? Today people continue to stream into America to explore and fulfill their dreams. Just like the Pilgrims these folks are filled with hope, fear and energy to pursue the promise of life, liberty and happiness. It is with those thoughts in mind that I offer this message which I originally wrote in 2004...
If you have received an email from me you have no doubt seen these words included below my signature. I didn't intend for the Latin translation to be secretive but rather, to spark curiosity. Translated, the words say, simply
Love, Fear, Perspective, Respect.
To understand these words is to understand the essence of life.
Love
It's my humble opinion that all emotions are rooted in two places: love and fear. Love, after all, is the root of all that is good in life. The pure unblemished innocence of a baby. Family, friends, beautiful days and beautiful flowers. A soft touch between lovers. A caring exchange between friends. Our charity to others. A warm blanket on a chilly day. Fine wine and fine food. It is all there.
Fear
Fear is love's opposite. A newborn baby has no fear. As they look to you with loving eyes you will sense their desire for love, warmth and nurturing. No, we learn fear over our lifetime. Fear keeps us from asking out the pretty girl, reaching for the brass ring, climbing mountains, forging new relationships and learning about others. Fear keeps us honest and causes us to lie. The seed of fear causes us to doubt ourselves and our abilities. Prejudice and division are among fear's offspring.
I realize that at first you may disagree and say that hate is love's opposite. But, I contend that you can't have hate - or virtually any other negative emotion - without fear. Dictators attain and stay in power because of fear. Fear causes anger and starts conflicts and wars of all sorts. People are exploited by fear. Left unchecked fear would run amok in our minds and severely limit our endeavors.
Yet, while this sounds simple enough, our relationship with love and fear presents a myriad of questions. If you are loved so much that you are smothered, is this good? If you shoo a child away from a hot stove because you're afraid that she'll be burned, is that bad? When do we push the envelope? How much should we push ourselves outside of our comfort zone?
How much fear is tolerable, how much love is too much? When fear serves as caution, isn't that a good thing? As students of the life experience we try - knowingly or not - to understand these nuances; to define them throughout the course of our lives.
I must confess that I have become quite introspective when it comes to my actions and reactions based on love and fear. Sometimes these actions and reactions have left me with more questions than answers. Owing perhaps to my personal growth.
I must confess that I have become quite introspective when it comes to my actions and reactions based on love and fear. Sometimes these actions and reactions have left me with more questions than answers. Owing perhaps to my personal growth.
Perspective
Interestingly enough love and fear shapes one's perspective. At the same time perspective can shape our loves and fears (likes and dislikes). Our perspective is called into question thousands of times each day from all directions (family, work, TV, news, money, politics, etc).
We have total control of our perspective. From the styles we like to the cars we want. From how we interact with all manner of people, objects and obstacles. From our view on local politics to the world at large. The list is endless.
If you doubt the importance of perspective try this experiment for one day: from the moment you rise until the moment you retire, keep your perspective in focus while you live your life. That's right, as you interact with the world around you, carrying on with the events that shape your day, be aware of how you interpret, react and interact with those events. It is not as easy as it sounds yet it can be a very enlightening and rewarding experience.
Respect
Wow, this word can evoke such powerful reactions. Extending it to ourselves and others seems to be forgotten all to often in our world. We cut off people on the highway, race to get to a sale rack in a store, step over others without the least consideration that, at our core, we all have loves, fears, joys, and sorrows. Each of us came into this world and will leave it in the same manner. We all breath, bleed, and ail in the same way.
On more then one occasion I have bore witness to grand acts of respect and disrespect. Growing up in NYC I lived through two blackouts. During the first (ca. 1966) store owners stood outside their stores and handed out candles to people passing by. People were helping each other get through it. In the second (ca. 1977) many parts of the city looked like a war zone.
If you doubt the importance of perspective try this experiment for one day: from the moment you rise until the moment you retire, keep your perspective in focus while you live your life. That's right, as you interact with the world around you, carrying on with the events that shape your day, be aware of how you interpret, react and interact with those events. It is not as easy as it sounds yet it can be a very enlightening and rewarding experience.
Respect
Wow, this word can evoke such powerful reactions. Extending it to ourselves and others seems to be forgotten all to often in our world. We cut off people on the highway, race to get to a sale rack in a store, step over others without the least consideration that, at our core, we all have loves, fears, joys, and sorrows. Each of us came into this world and will leave it in the same manner. We all breath, bleed, and ail in the same way.
On more then one occasion I have bore witness to grand acts of respect and disrespect. Growing up in NYC I lived through two blackouts. During the first (ca. 1966) store owners stood outside their stores and handed out candles to people passing by. People were helping each other get through it. In the second (ca. 1977) many parts of the city looked like a war zone.
Today we have "hate crime" laws! Imagine that. Somehow, the intent of a person to kill a person or persons of a "protected" group is somehow worse then the intent to murder an individual or random group of people!!!
Yet, there are moments in time when we can see why we've gone astray -- we've forgotten about our self-respect. From how we speak and act, our remembrance and display of manners and how we think of ourselves -- our sense of pride -- all demonstrate self-respect. When we have it, we can't help but extend it to others.
Perhaps 9-11 revealed the worst and best forms of respect. In a few moments respect for others was decimated. Yet, in the hours, days and weeks that followed we found the greatest forms of pride and respect for ourselves and others.
Yet, there are moments in time when we can see why we've gone astray -- we've forgotten about our self-respect. From how we speak and act, our remembrance and display of manners and how we think of ourselves -- our sense of pride -- all demonstrate self-respect. When we have it, we can't help but extend it to others.
Perhaps 9-11 revealed the worst and best forms of respect. In a few moments respect for others was decimated. Yet, in the hours, days and weeks that followed we found the greatest forms of pride and respect for ourselves and others.
You may think of it as quite bold to select these four words from among the 475,000 in the English language. But I, in turn, would challenge you to keep these words and your actions in the forefront of your mind. When you react instinctively, think about it. Challenge yourself. Ask yourself if you could push the envelope, could extend yourself to others more, could react differently to the world and events around you.
Moreover, when you gather with your family and friends this Thanksgiving I would ask you to take an extra moment for the precocious child. Make the time to really give your full attention to each of the people that you meet. Really listen to what they are saying; what is on their mind. Allow the silent moments to last just a bit. Take a moment and study those around you. Try to see their perspective even when (especially when) it seems so impossible to do. To truly feel the goodness within each of them. To enjoy time with them.
In the end you may not agree with me on the prominence of these words but I promise you a very insightful and fulfilling Thanksgiving.
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